{"id":7254,"date":"2026-10-08T09:59:48","date_gmt":"2026-10-08T08:59:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bainesjewitt.co.uk\/blog\/?p=7254"},"modified":"2026-10-08T08:59:51","modified_gmt":"2026-10-08T08:59:51","slug":"diesel-and-oil-crisis-is-your-business-preparing-for-the-unexpected","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bainesjewitt.co.uk\/blog\/diesel-and-oil-crisis-is-your-business-preparing-for-the-unexpected\/","title":{"rendered":"Diesel and oil crisis: Is your business preparing for the unexpected?"},"content":{"rendered":"

A recent meeting with G7 leaders resulted in 100 million barrels of diesel and oil to be shared from reserves, following threats of oil embargoes and further price rises.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

The price of diesel continues to hit historic highs in the UK, with RAC data showing the average price topping two pounds per litre<\/a> for the first time.<\/p>\n

UK businesses are reeling from the soaring fuel prices, which are having a direct impact on overheads, supply chains, profit margins and cash flow.<\/p>\n

While the G7 announcement may lead to some financial relief, price drops may remain short-lived due to global supplies remaining heavily suppressed by ongoing geopolitical tensions.<\/p>\n

Instead of waiting for prices to fall, businesses should focus on building resilience into their everyday strategies to help prepare for future price rises.<\/p>\n

How does scenario planning work?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

While these record fuel prices may have seemed unheard of a year ago, circumstances change and businesses are left picking up the pieces.<\/p>\n

This is where scenario planning comes in.<\/p>\n

Business scenario planning is a method for map out several possible futures and planning how each should be responded to.<\/p>\n

By exploring multiple potential outcomes and preparing for them in advance, businesses can mitigate risk and stay resilient throughout uncertainty.<\/p>\n

Scenario planning happens in five critical steps:<\/p>\n

    \n
  • Identify driving forces \u2013 <\/strong>This involves identifying the key shifts or trends, like rising fuel prices and assessing how they will impact your company<\/li>\n
  • Build the scenarios \u2013 <\/strong>Find two or three of the most important uncertainties and create a small set of plausible, distinct futures<\/li>\n
  • Assess the implications \u2013 <\/strong>Work through what each scenario would mean for aspects of your business, such as cash flow and supply chains, and stress-test where the current strategy breaks<\/li>\n
  • Plan responses \u2013 <\/strong>Develop actions for each scenario, separating those that help in every scenario and those that are specific to certain circumstances<\/li>\n
  • Monitor \u2013 <\/strong>Set early warning signposts that will flag when a scenario is unfolding, keeping the plan regularly updated<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Plans should be reviewed monthly and whenever something significant changes, such as fuel prices rising, borrowing costs increasing or losing a major client.<\/p>\n

    For SMEs in particular, there is less room for error and cost pressures can quickly eat margins, so planning can give you more time to respond, not suddenly react.<\/p>\n

    Where can an accountant add value<\/strong><\/h3>\n

    As good planning depends on good data, an accountant can provide the numbers needed to answer those what-if questions.<\/p>\n

    Once scenarios have been identified, accountants can translate uncertainties into financial models to stress-test outcomes.<\/p>\n

    For fuel prices, an accountant can help to model impacts on operating costs and profitability to determining where your business becomes unsustainable.<\/p>\n

    This might include testing how long a business could endure higher costs before prices need to rise or which services or products become unprofitable.<\/p>\n

    One of the biggest risks SMEs face during periods of rising costs is a cash flow shortage. Accountants can create rolling forecasts and identify months where extra capital is needed.<\/p>\n

    With fuel prices remaining volatile and uncertainty becoming more commonplace, scenario planning can help you remain resilient to further cost increases.<\/p>\n

    Feeling the pressure of rising costs? Speak to our accountants for help with scenario planning and forecasting.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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