There\u2019s plenty of pessimism about the UK jobs market at the moment, but not every change is a bad omen.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
With the Autumn Budget still two months away and many firms wary of making big moves, it is not a simple task to predict what comes next.<\/p>\n
Still, the data we do have points to an emerging pattern of fewer employees on payrolls, but meaningful pay growth for those who remain.<\/p>\n
We want to help you understand the ways you can adapt your business to keep pace with the changes in the UK job market.<\/p>\n
How you answer that depends on the metric you choose.<\/p>\n
HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) data shows a fall in payroll employment with a drop of roughly 8,000 fewer people on payroll, contributing to 127,000 fewer employees on payrolls than a year ago.<\/p>\n
On the face of it, that sounds alarming.<\/p>\n
However, context matters and it is important to note that wages are still rising.<\/p>\n
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reports that regular pay excluding bonuses grew by 4.8 per cent in the three months to July, down a bit from five per cent in the three months to June, yet still significant given the cost-of-living squeeze.<\/p>\n
On the whole, it seems that employers are trimming headcount while maintaining or even increasing pay for the staff they keep.<\/p>\n
That pattern could be reflecting some of the difficult choices that have been made recently.<\/p>\n
Rising employer National Insurance Contributions (NICs), hikes to the National Minimum Wage (NMW) and National Living Wage (NLW), and other statutory costs have all forced businesses to rethink labour strategies.<\/p>\n
Reducing the workforce can free up budget to retain key personnel with stronger pay and benefits, which in turn helps preserve capability and morale in a smaller team.<\/p>\n
With the Autumn Budget looming, many organisations are understandably cautious about committing to long-term changes.<\/p>\n
In the meantime, businesses should focus on control and preparedness.<\/p>\n
It is imperative that they get a clear handle on payroll obligations and forecast likely costs under different Budget scenarios.<\/p>\n
We can help stress-test your payroll to show how pay rises, NICs and other changes impact your cashflow.<\/p>\n
Businesses should also consider the composition and capability of the team they retain.<\/p>\n
Strengthening pay and support for core staff can be a pragmatic way to manage overall payroll spend while keeping the talent you need.<\/p>\n
That does not mean leaving people to fend for themselves as there is still scope to invest in HR support, training and wellbeing so a smaller workforce can operate at full capacity.<\/p>\n
Automation, smarter rostering and productivity tools can reduce manual effort and allow a leaner team to achieve more without overtime or burnout.<\/p>\n
Where hiring is essential, flexible contracts and temporary resources can plug gaps without committing permanently to higher long-term costs.<\/p>\n
We\u2019re working with businesses to navigate rising employment costs through smarter payroll planning, benefits reviews and digital efficiency.<\/p>\n
If you\u2019re worried about the impact of headcount changes or need a payroll stress test ahead of the Autumn Budget, speak to our team.<\/p>\n
We\u2019ll help you balance compliance, competitiveness and the well-being of your people so you\u2019re ready for whatever comes next.<\/p>\n
For help managing your payroll obligations, speak to our team today!<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" There\u2019s plenty of pessimism about the UK jobs market at the moment, but not every change is a bad omen.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":6599,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24,125],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bainesjewitt.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6596"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bainesjewitt.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bainesjewitt.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bainesjewitt.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bainesjewitt.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6596"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.bainesjewitt.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6596\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6597,"href":"https:\/\/www.bainesjewitt.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6596\/revisions\/6597"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bainesjewitt.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6599"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bainesjewitt.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6596"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bainesjewitt.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6596"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bainesjewitt.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6596"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}