Britain is among a handful of shining lights in the global economy this year as the world sees the slowest period of growth since the depths of the financial crisis, according to the International Monetary Fund.
In its half-yearly update on the health of the world economy, the Washington-based fund predicted expansion of 3.1 per cent in 2015, 0.2 points lower than it was expecting three months ago and the weakest performance since the trough of the downturn in 2009.
The 2016 forecast is down to 3.6 per cent from 3.8 per cent.
The IMF’s world economic outlook (WEO) predicted the US would have the strongest growth of the leading G7 industrial nations in both 2015 and 2016, at 2.6 per cent and 2.8 per cent, respectively. Britain is expected to be the second-fastest growing G7 nation, although output growth is predicted to slow from 2.5 per cent to 2.2 per cent.
None of the other G7 countries – Germany, France, Italy, Japan and Canada – is predicted to post growth as high as 2 per cent in either 2015 or 2016.
“Six years after the world economy emerged from its broadest and deepest post-war recession, the holy grail of robust and synchronised global expansion remains elusive,” said Maurice Obstfeld, the IMF’s chief economist.
“Despite considerable differences in country-specific outlooks, the new forecasts mark down expected near-term growth marginally but nearly across the board. Moreover, downside risks to the world economy appear more pronounced that they did just a few months ago.
“Recovery is most advanced in the US and the UK, where monetary policy looks likely to tighten soon, but is more tentative in the euro area and Japan.”
The sharpest downgrades are for emerging economies, especially Brazil, Nigeria, South Africa and Russia.
The slowdown in China – which the IMF predicted will grow 6.3 percent next year, its lowest rate in 25 years – is taking a toll on other emerging economies that depended on the Asian giant’s appetite for their raw materials.
Prices of oil, metals, minerals and other commodities have sunk as the world’s second-largest economy has cooled.