UK growth picked up pace in the three months to August but the economy faces risks from the knock-on effect of turbulence in China, one of the UK’s leading independent employers’ organisations has said.
A survey from the CBI of 754 firms showed the rate of expansion heading higher for the second month running with expectations for the next three months also buoyant.
It said the gap between firms reporting higher output volumes and those saying they were lower was at a positive balance of 31 per cent, up from 20 per cent in the three months to July and the best rate since May. The balance of firms expecting growth in the next three months was unchanged from July at 27 per cent.
The survey covered the manufacturing, retail and services sectors.
“The weather may have been a washout [in August], but the sun has certainly been shining on the British economy,” Rain Newton-Smith, CBI director of economics, said.
“The pace of growth has been energised across the sectors and it is good news that this is set to continue as we head into the autumn.”
However, she added, although the domestic picture was brighter, UK exporters still faced headwinds from China, where fears of a slowdown have set off convulsions in global markets.
Newton-Smith added: “Businesses will need to keep a close eye on turbulence in the markets, and whether it spills over into the real economy.
“The UK’s direct exposure to China is limited, but slower growth there and in other emerging markets has a knock-on impact on confidence around the globe, and could bear down on UK trade.”
Last week the CBI upgraded its growth forecast for the UK from 2.4 per cent to 2.6 per cent this year and from 2.5 per cent to 2.8 per cent in 2016 saying the upturn would be powered by the “twin engines” of rising household spending and robust business investment.
On Friday the Office for National Statistics (ONS) confirmed an initial estimate that gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.7 per cent in the second quarter, up from 0.4 per cent at the start of the year.